Tag: Barack Obama (page 7)

What time will John McCain concede?

What will the final electoral vote count be?

What will the voter turnout be?

Tie breaker:

What will the Popular vote be?

Up to 5 winners will get a TalkLeft 4th Amendment Tote. My prediction yesterday: Obama either wins 383 to 155 or 356 to 182

ABC News has called Pennsylvania for Obama. Added: CNN has also.

McCain can't win without Pennsylvania. He pinned all his hopes on it. I think it's over. The Obama campaign is saying it's too early to say Obama has won, but I think it's going to be a landslide.

Update 7:45pm: You can search the ABC exit polls here. CNN's are up for each state. Just go to their presidential page and click on the state you are interested in.

Update 6:45pm: 72% of white evangelicals voted for McCain. Bush got 78% of them, a six point drop for McCain. McCain is winning them in every state, with Mississippi at the top, Minnesota at the bottom.

Update: 6:30pm: Higher income voters (earning more than $100k) went for Obama nationally 52% to 47%. In Ohio, these voters preferred McCain but in Colorado, they preferred Obama. Translation: the tax issue isn't working nationally for McCain. [More below....]

The New York Times reports that CBS and Slate may call the election before the polls close around the country. I hope they do.

I think it will be an early night and the outcome will be known as soon as Ohio, PA, Florida, Indiana and Virginia are projected. CBS says:

"We can’t be in this position of hiding our heads in the sand when the story is obvious.”

Similarly, the editor of the Web site Slate, David Plotz, said in an e-mail message that “if Obama is winning heavily,” he could see calling the race “sometime between 8 and 9.”

“Our readers are not stupid, and we shouldn’t engage in a weird Kabuki drama that pretends McCain could win California and thus the presidency,” Mr. Plotz wrote. “We will call it when a sensible person — not a TV news anchor who has to engage in a silly pretense about West Coast voters — would call it.”

Why drag it out? Let's begin the celebration early.

Markos of Daily Kos gives his electoral vote predictions. He thinks Obama will win 390 to 148.

It's time for me to give my prediction: Obama either wins 383 to 155 or 356 to 182. My maps are below:

A lot of eyes will be on Virginia tomorrow. Today, a federal judge rejected a lawsuit by the NAACP to extend voting hours.

The lawsuit, filed last week, contends that the state is violating the U.S. and state constitutions by not providing enough voting machines, poll workers and polling places, particularly in precincts with large minority populations. The shortages could result in long lines and lost votes, the suit says.

"We are urging all voters to stand in line," NAACP President Ben Jealous said after the ruling. "Americans have waited 230 years for this -- a multi-gender, multi-generational, multiracial [campaign]. This is a big day. Stay in line."

Disabled and elederly voters can vote curbside. And anyone in line at 7pm when the polls close will get to vote. There are more than 5 million registered voters in the state.

Via the LA Times, Karl Rove has released his final electoral map predictions.

The final Rove & Co. electoral map (pdf)of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow.

All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain. The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain’s column since he’s benefited from recent movement in the state.

Rove's predictions are only 1 EV different than Democratic strategist William Arnone's which I wrote about here.

It will be an early election night if Obama takes PA, FL and Ohio. Does anyone forsee any surprises? I think Obama has a decent shot at North Carolina and a chance at Indiana. I won't be surprised if he tops 350 electoral votes. But I'll gladly take 338 or 339.

William Arnone, author of previous reports on the key states in the primaries and the electoral vote, has prepared his final assessment of who is likely to carry each state in Tuesday's Presidential election. I am publishing the report with his permission.

His summary:

The final assessment shows that the Democratic ticket of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware will win 27 states (including the District of Columbia) and part of one state (Nebraska) with 339 electoral votes.

The Republican Presidential ticket of Senator John McCain of Arizona and Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska will win 23 states and parts of one state (Nebraska) with 199 electoral votes. The number of electoral votes needed to win is 270.

More...

In an editorial today, the Casper Tribune endorsed Sen. Barack Obama. It says Obama is better on economic and energy issues and McCain flubbed by picking Gov. Sarah Palin. In describing McCain it says:

If the John McCain of 2000 saw today's counterpart, he wouldn't recognize himself. McCain is no longer a GOP maverick, or the war hero whose principles were unwavering. He has flip-flopped on issues ranging from tax cuts to torture in an effort to win over the conservative base of his party. He has waged a dismal campaign based on fear and divisiveness.

On Obama: [More...]

Sen. Barack Obama has received the endorsement of three leading Jewish newspapers:

• Detroit Jewish News
• Los Angeles Jewish Observer
• Washington Jewish Week

Here's a very moving video by Israelis who support Obama.

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Bump and Update: Ali Hamza al Bahlul has been found guilty at his Guantanamo Military Commissions trial.The ACLU says (statement to be available here shortly):

“The conviction of Al Bahlul is yet another example of a military commission system set up to produce convictions, not to deliver real justice. Unfortunately, because the system is fundamentally flawed and lacks any semblance of due process, a cloud of illegitimacy hangs over this verdict. The world deserves better than that from America. The next president should close Guantánamo and future prosecutions should occur in criminal or military courts where the Constitution still means something and where verdicts, no matter what they are, can be trusted.” ...The ACLU calls on the next president to close Guantánamo, ban torture and end extraordinary rendition.

Original Post:

McCain vs. Obama on Gitmo Trials

[More...]

Quinnipiac released its final big swing state poll this morning. Obama is ahead in Ohio and PA. Florida is too close to call.

"Sen. Obama appears headed for the best showing of any Democratic candidate among white voters in a generation, going back at least to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and perhaps even to Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama leads by 10 in PA and 7 in Ohio. He's up 2 in FL, within the margin of error. As for McCain's last stand in PA:

"In the end, Sen. John McCain's troops in Central Pennsylvania, led by veterans, disaffected Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters and God and gun clingers, will be swept over by a wave of young black and urban new voters, giving Sen. Barack Obama the Keystone State," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

[More...]